don't blame Putin
Story highlights
Russian middle classes are feeling the pain of
European sanctions
But they do not blame Putin who has 85-90%
popularity, according to polls
The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014
was overwhelmingly popular in Russia
Editor's Note: Jill Dougherty is currently a CNN
Contributor. She is a former CNN foreign affairs
correspondent and Moscow bureau chief with
expertise in Russia and the former Soviet Union.
She is currently at the International Centre for
Defence and Security, researching the influence of
Russian media. The views expressed are her own.
(CNN)— Russia's middle class has had a tough
time recently, but they aren't blaming President
Vladimir Putin for it.
No more winter charter flights to sunny Turkey;
Putin's government banned them after Turkey
shot down a Russian warplane in Syria in late
November.
No more Turkish fruits, vegetables, or meats
either. They're also banned.
And forget about Brie,Camembert and other
imported European cheeses. They too
disappeared from shelves, after the Kremlin
banned them in retaliation for European
sanctions over Russia's annexation of Crimea .
Then there's the sinking Russian currency. The
ruble has lost more than half its value since last
year.
Some of Putin's critics predict it's just a matter
of time before frustrated Russians rise up and
punish him for their economic woes.
But it's not happening. In fact, Putin's poll
ratings are in the stratosphere, hovering between
85% and 90%, according to the Levada Center,
an independent Russian polling company.
"To think that living standards go down and
people, what, revolt? It's too simplistic," says
Maria Lipman, a Moscow-based political analyst
associated with George Washington University.
"That would follow the logic of 'it's the economy,
stupid.' But it's not just the economy, stupid."
Russians may not be able to buy Turkish
tomatoes, but there are other tomatoes to buy --
and when many people open their refrigerators,
they're not empty.
"One of reasons the Soviet Union collapsed so
quickly was that the Soviet economic model
could not properly feed people," explains Fyodor
Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of the Russia in Global
Affairs journal.
"There was a real problem with scarce goods.
Today, the assortment, the amount of cheese, is
shrinking, but it's not a question of starvation or
hunger or even a big problem to get some food.
And it will not happen because today's Russia
can produce food."
When Russians look for someone to blame for
their economic problems, many point to the
countries that imposed sanctions in the first
place -- the U.S. and Europe. Fed by a steady
diet of government-controlled anti-western
media, they feel their country is under attack
economically, politically, and militarily.
"There is a siege mentality," says Maria Lipman.
"There are enemies all around, but we stand
proud, and we will not bend, we will not
surrender to oppression. We are invincible."
This mood is captured in a new poll by the
Levada Center . Seventy percent of respondents
said they had a negative view of the United
States. Sixty percent were negative about the
European Union.
And there's another factor at work: Russians feel
a growing pride in being Russian. Many of them
have come to see the decade after the Soviet
Union collapsed as an aberration, a period when
they were a weak, humiliated, and toothless
former super-power.
The annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014,
reviled in the West, was overwhelmingly popular
in Russia, says the Levada Center's Denis
Volkov.
Writing in the Vedomosti newspaper, he says
Crimea was a turning point: "As a result, many
people felt the rebirth of Russia's greatness that
was lost after the fall of the USSR."
In focus groups conducted by the Levada Center,
Russians put it this way: "We bared our teeth";
"We forced them to respect us"; "If they don't
love us then at least they fear us."
Putin's government "intentionally exploited post-
imperial complexes" that Russians still felt,
Volkov says, "obviously calculating that reuniting
Crimea to Russia would strengthen support for
the regime." But the strength of that effect -- and
how long it has lasted -- have surprised even the
Kremlin.
Russia's current military action in Syria has only
intensified those emotions. State media air video
of sophisticated new Russian weapons being
deployed in Syria, of terrorist headquarters
destroyed by massive bombing raids -- and it's
having an effect: A December Levada Center poll
shows that 85% of Russians are proud of their
armed forces; 68% are proud of their country's
political influence in the world; and almost 60%
think Russia is better than the majority of other
countries.
It's not a black and white picture , however.
Asked about Russia's economic achievements,
only 27% said they were "very proud" or
"somewhat proud."
Nevertheless, this growing patriotism and
support for their president -- combined with
assurances by Putin that the current economic
crisis is "complicated but not critical" -- "makes
it easier for people to put up with economic
hardships and for Putin to preserve his high
legitimacy and high approval rating," according
to Maria Lipman.
Even if Russia's middle class turned sour on
their president it would not mean a profound
change in his approval rating, says Fyodor
Lukyanov.
Russia's middle class, according to the Russian
business journal Kommersant, has remained
stable for the past 15 years at approximately
20% of the population. Citing government
statistics, the journal predicts that the current
economic crisis will reduce the percentage of
Russia's middle class to 15%.
"The impact of the middle class on Russian
public opinion," Lukyanov says, "is visible and
quite important, but limited."
Western-oriented economists often describe the
middle class as a product of a market economy
which, in turn, leads to demands for democracy.
But Lukyanov says that's only part of Russia's
middle class.
There's been a "renaissance" of engineers and
personnel working for Russia's defense industry,
he says, an elite class in the Soviet Union that
fell apart in the chaos of the early post-Soviet
period. Now they're back, and the Kremlin is
paying attention. The group has almost nothing
to do with the market economy, Lukyanov says,
and they support Putin.
Among these Russians, the Kremlin media
apparatus has been quite successful in
transforming Western sanctions into a plus.
Lukyanov explains: "Putin was very skillful to
create the idea that we are experiencing trouble
but the rest of the world is treating us as real
competitors, a real force, not like before. And for
middle class it's important to feel that you are a
citizen of a very important country."
Neither Lukyanov nor Lipman can predict how
long Russian consumers will soldier through
these economic difficulties without blaming
Putin. But the overall mood in Russia seems
clear.
The Kremlin, through state media, "has created
an atmosphere in society which makes all losses
and suffering in society less painful," says
Lukyanov. "The feeling of being surrounded by
hostile powers creates another feeling: that
security is more important than prosperity."
Russia's economic crisis may not have dented
Putin's popularity, but mounting financial
problems and an inability to compensate for
devalued pensions and wages will inevitably
have an effect on popular support for Putin and
the system as a whole, says the Levada Center's
Denis Volkov.
"So far, however, the time to blame Putin has
not come."
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